- He’s a good value while sharing the 11th-best odds. Place your legal, online 2021 Farmers Insurance Open bets in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV at BetMGM. Risk-free first bet! Terms and conditions apply. 2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting picks – Contender Gary Woodland (+5000).
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- There’s a little less volume to the 2020 bowl season, but there are still plenty of intriguing matchups to bet on. For this post, I’m focusing on the eight games on tap between Tuesday, Dec.
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TODAY'S TOP PLAYS
VERNON CROY is also a remarkable 23-12 +5,620 with his last 35 top CBB plays rated 5-Units or higher this season and he is ready to crush the books with his 7-Unit CBB Play (8:00 pm) that goes Wednesday night. Croy is the top CBB expert this season up over +6,000 so get on it now! Can you get on this play fast enough?!
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Indiana Pacers vs Brooklyn Nets Prediction, 2/10/2021 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 2/9/2021
The Indiana Pacers are scheduled to take on the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on Wednesday, February 10, 2021. Indiana opens this contest as 2.5-point underdogs. The total has been set at 231. This matchup report includes betting lines and our pick of the day for this game. Read More >>
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, 2/10/2021 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 2/9/2021
The Cleveland Cavaliers are set to meet the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Wednesday, February 10, 2021. The spread on this contest has Denver as 9.5-point favorites. The over/under opens at 225. This matchup report has Vegas lines and an expert NBA basketball pick for your daily winner. Read More >>
What Makes a Best Bet in NBA?
Here you will find a list of tips from our NBA experts that will help you understand what makes up a NBA best bet and what you should be looking for in order to spot one on your own.
DOC'S SPORTS – At Doc's Sports we consider the NBA Playoffs our specialty, and in the NBA Finals in particular we have had some incredible results lately. In the 2016 and 2017 NBA Finals we have earned nearly $5500 in profit combined for $100 bettors with a 9-2 result for 7-Unit plays during this span. For any playoff series we envision how we think the entire series will play out from game to game and then when the oddsmakers' lines differ from our vision then we attack with a large play. The bookies set their lines with the general betting public in mind and we find there are often weak lines in the NBA Finals since more dumb money is in the mix compared to a regular-season game. Sometimes a playoff series deviates from what we expect and at that point it is time to look again at the series as a whole and recalibrate your prediction for the series. It's a lot of work, but the results speak for themselves.
ROBERT FERRINGO – I always say: gambling isn't magic, it's mathematics. And if you look close enough and follow the numbers close enough the best bet situations will always present themselves. There are always motivational and situational factors to consider, particularly involving scheduling. But what takes a play from good to great is when you catch a team just begging for a statistical regression because of either exceptionally poor or exceptional outstanding shooting. Align that regression with other factors and voila, you have a big bet. An example was one of our first 7-Unit NBA Plays last year on Boston on Nov. 11. They had lost three straight games prior to taking on the Knicks. And despite being a Top 12 defensive team they had allowed their three previous opponents to shoot around 50 percent from the field and around 48 percent from 3-point range. In the meantime Boston, which was one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, was coming off a game in which they were held to just 93 points. Facing a rival, at home, looking to snap a losing streak, and due for both good offensive and defensive showings, the Celtics destroyed the Knicks 115-87 against a 5.5-point spread. That's how it's done.
INDIAN COWBOY – We have had some great success in the NBA, posting four straight winning years. One of the main things I look for are teams that recently faced each other and the line the second time they face each other. For example, last year the Warriors were -17 favorites over the Lakers and Golden State sent a clear message with a 149-106 blowout. Then two days later the Lakers and Warriors hooked up again, this time in Los Angeles, and we took the 'under'. Why? We took it because we knew that former Warriors Coach Luke Walton would undoubtedly make the necessary adjustments, appeal to the pride of his players, and make them play harder on the defensive end after giving up nearly 150 points in their previous game. See, most people think just because a game ended a certain way, it is going to be exactly that way or similar the next time around and that is not the case. Though we are big on revenge, sometimes there is an indirect revenge. In this case, the indirect revenge was the underdog play better, but the way they play better is to get better on what they were grotesquely bad at last time which was defense. The final score on November 25th was 109-85 and the Warriors won - and the game went well 'Under' the 230 which we took for a nice 3-Unit winner. Hence, when you are watching the NBA this year, look for teams that play each other again within a short span of time as it has the elements of the opposite pace it had in the first contest.
RAPHAEL ESPARZA – Betting the NBA in recent years has been weird because of the big swing in conference dominance. The public will always bet the top 3-5 teams but getting value on the not so entertaining teams like the Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks, etc. is were you can get some value. With rules changing this year some of my stats and trends are out the window. But, again, handicapping NBA non-elite teams this year could be what makes another profitable year and even bigger for my best bets. Also look for tons of NBA teams playing at a higher pace because of how their rosters are setup and we could see tons of points scored this year in the NBA. I am a guy that loves betting totals so this could be a huge NBA season.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS – In the NBA bettors are constantly looking for an edge. It isn't the easiest sport due to players resting and the dreaded back-to-backs, or even worse, back-to-back-to-backs. Players are asked to play a lot of minutes each night and due to this teams decide to rest players and don't make it public until after gamblers have already done their research on the lines. Fear not, my friends, as there are some opportunities to take advantage of during the dog days of the NBA schedule. One such opportunity is when a teams best player doesn't play. This DNP could be due to an injury or because of rest. Many times oddsmakers will adjust a line in order to sway the public in this situation. It is important to not always just fade the team that isn't with their best player. In this spot the 'short-handed' team has value as players that aren't often given a shot to make a statement do so. A teams best player controls the basketball and a lot of times they take possessions away from other capable players. An NBA player gets time because he is good enough to make a difference. We used to love taking the Lakers when Kobe didn't play. Now, don't get us wrong, Kobe is an all-time great. But when he didn't play his teammates did their best to shine. They didn't always win, but they were always scrappy and would have plenty of value.
ALLEN EASTMAN – I think that one of the most important tips I can give to NBA bettors is to always be aware of the trends. I am a big trend player. And not just the trends that go back for one or two years. I like trends that go back five, 10 or even 12 years. There are some teams that don't play well in certain cities. Places like Utah and Portland can be horrible for opposing teams and some guys just never play well there. The more history you have the better the trend and then the stronger the play. .
JASON SHARPE – For me an NBA best bet usually involves finding a team that's going through some recent lineup changes due to injuries, trades or any other reason. For instance, if a player that is a starter gets hurt for a team and he's more of an offensive type player and he is replaced by more of a 'defensive-first' type player than I will tend to look towards betting an 'under' on this team, especially if a few other things come into play. And if more than one new player enters into the rotation that usually means I'm looking to strongly back something. The bottom line is the NBA betting market, like most professional sports leagues, is controlled by what I call 'the computer algorithm handicappers'. These guys will usually key in all the information on EACH team into their computers so each team has a game pace rating, a final score and offensive/defensive rating per possession to name a few stats that they all look at. My thinking is that these past stats for each team were accomplished when certain player(s) were on the floor and now if that team has a few different changes to who's representing them than we should expect some much different type results. The best time of the season to take advantage of these 'best bets' is usually at the beginning of the season involving a team that is using a few new players from the previous season and then again around the NBA trade deadline. Teams will quickly change the way they look and play when they have a different cast of characters on the floor. It's during this time of the season that you will see a lot of change and change is what we are looking for to get us one step ahead of the computer guys.
ALAN HARRIS – My main advice when looking for a top NBA play is do not overreact to injuries. Other than a quarterback in the NFL, a star player in the NBA has the biggest impact on a point spread. In the NBA, if LeBron James or Kevin Durant is announced out, both sharps and squares alike will run to the window with the thought that 'there's no way that team X can win without player Y.' Now, the Cavs or Warriors won't be as good long-term without those guys. But for that one game it's really not that big of a deal. The immediate thought is that the team is losing a bunch of points or rebounds but people don't take into account that yes, the backups are putting up less per game in those categories, but they are also doing it in less minutes. Also, starters will usually step up in a game where it's announced that one of the big guns will be out. We worked this strategy to perfection last season in a game between the Raptors and the Pacers. Kyle Lowry was hurt, listed as questionable, and there was a thought that he might come back that night. The overnight line opened up at the Raptors (-7) and it was announced early that Lowry wouldn't be playing. The line immediately dropped to -5 and that's where we jumped on it. What happened? DeMar DeRozan dropped 40, three other starters scored in double digits, and Delon Wright, who got some run due to the injury, chipped in with 11-2-6. Toronto wound up winning 111-100 and we wound up cashing a nice ticket on the Raptors.
VERNON CROY – When it comes to making a big play in the NBA, I look for motivation by a certain team and I also look for situational trends. How tired is the team I'm going against; did they just play three games in four nights or are they coming off a close loss against a division rival? Is the team I'm taking playing with extra rest and what is their motivation level for this game, as we have all seen teams take nights off in the NBA? I also look at the injury reports and study stats from when these teams have played in the past. Normally when there is a key player injured the books over adjust the lines leaving lots of value for taking the team with the injury, as they will pick up their game to make up for the loss of their star player. Is there a revenge factor or does a certain team play another team harder than others, or is this a letdown spot? These are just some of the several factors that go into making a big play in the NBA for me, and after 18-years I'm still adjusting my systems and analytics to be the best I can possibly be to give my clients an significant edge over the books.
TONY GEORGE – An NBA Handicapping tip I use involves scheduling and more specifically East and West Coast road swings. I like to fade teams, especially good teams towards the end of a long road trip when they are laying points. As an example, say the Cavs are playing their fifth road game in six or seven days on the West Coast. And after playing the Suns, Lakers, Clippers and Jazz, now they have lowly Sacramento. When this scenario occurs, a good team will generally be laying six or more points to their weak opponent. I like to fade them and take the points. Road weary teams play little defense down the stretch and do what they have to do to just win a game many times.
DOUG UPSTONE - The methodology I use is by starting to create a spread based on three power ratings I use. They all have various components, designed to cover different aspects of the teams in a particular contest. Next, is the statistical advantages one team might have over another, particularly at quarterback, running the ball, stopping the run and rushing the opposing quarterback. If those show up as more one-way edges and match my power rankings, I move to the next step. That would be finding systems I have developed and look to find more evidence of a special play, and specifically I'm after ones that have a 75 percent or higher cover rate and with a minimum of 30 game outcomes and the scoring average rather easily covers the spread. Up next is reviewing situational aspects, that are team specific, which often can be nuggets of extremely useful information. The cherry on the top of the cake is looking at line movement or the lack of it in the first part of the week. If the power ratings are strong, the stats are in my favor, a system or two light up, and the situation is nicely favorable on the NFL contest that is not on everyone's radar to start a week, that is what I'm looking for in a big play!
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The strongest PGA Tour field of the year thus far is in La Jolla, California, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. The first two rounds will be played on the North Course with the weekend played on the South Course. The South Course will host the 2021 US Open scheduled for June 17-20. Below, we look at the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open odds, and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Four of the top seven golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are in attendance, as are last week’s winner Si Woo Kim and defending champion Marc Leishman. The European Tour’s Dubai Desert Classic is poaching a few of the world’s top-ranked golfers, including Tyrrell Hatton and Collin Morikawa.
Also see:Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Golf Power RankingsMatchups and prop bets
2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting picks – Favorite
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:08 a.m. ET.
Marc Leishman (+4000)
Leishman was off last week following a T-4 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii. The 2020 champion did so while gaining 2.68 strokes per round putting with 1.58 Strokes Gained: Approach per round. Both of those aspects of his game were sharp in Hawaii, and he also gained 1.86 strokes per round from tee-to-green.
The Australian has played 44 career rounds at Torrey Pines’ South Course with an average of 1.68 strokes gained on the field per round. He had four top-10 finishes in this event in 10 appearances before winning last year.
Last year’s win came against a similar strength of field with many of the top odds favorites back again. Leishman may have relied a little too heavily on his putter in 2020, but he knows these greens well, and his irons are in excellent form. He’s a good value while sharing the 11th-best odds.
Place your legal, online 2021 Farmers Insurance Open bets in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV atBetMGM. Risk-free first bet! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting picks – Contender
Gary Woodland (+5000)
Woodland’s T-16 finish last week was his best result since a T-5 at the Workday Charity Open last summer. His strengths last week were 1.32 SG: Tee-to-Green and 0.90 SG: Off-the-Tee per round. His driver will need to be a strength at the 7,765-yard, par-72 South Course.
The 2019 US Open winner shares the 29th-best odds to win this week. He is 29th by the odds to win the 2021 US Open in five months but at a considerably lower price of +6600 in a stronger field.
The course conditions this week will more closely resemble Pebble Beach Golf Links where Woodland won at minus-13 than they will in June. Tiger Woods won the last US Open at Torrey Pines at just 1-under par.
2021 Farmers Insurance Open betting picks – Long shot
Joel Dahmen (+12500)
There have been few long-shot winners of this event in recent years. Other than a young Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings in 2014 was the last to rank outside of the top 100 in the Official World Golf Ranking at the time of their victory. For that reason, I’m only willing to go as far as Dahmen for a long-shot bet this week.
He ranks 65th in the OWGR but 27th in the Golfweek rankings. He missed the cut at minus-1 last week, but he led the field with 1.94 SG: Off-the-Tee through his 36 holes.
Dahmen has still never won on the PGA Tour, but he has performed well in big tournaments and on long courses, including a T-9 finish in this event in 2019.
Get some action on the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
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