Under/Over 2.5 goals predictions for the football matches of today. Goal line predictions. Over Under Betting Strategy Betting overs and unders is routine practice for most sports gamblers. Point spread wagers are more popular, moneyline investments are simpler and parlays can be more lucrative, but over and under plays are arguably the second-most common wager among sportsbook users. Over and under betting strategy with over 98 success just do thisDOWNLOAD IT HERE: or the exclusive club. The Over Under betting strategy is a simple and easy system that you can use with confidence over a wide variety of ball-orientated sports. Technically part of the 2 Way bet family, Over / Under bets, as the name implies, works on predicting a score line that is either.
Are you getting bored of simply betting on who will win the game each time? Change it up and bet on the total instead. Total betting is essentially a 50/50 proposition on whether the total points scored by both teams will go over or under the bookmaker’s posted total.
Also known as over/under betting, this type of wager is available on almost any sport you can think of: football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer to name a few. Hockey, as we explain in this article, is perhaps the best sport for profitable totals betting, as it’s the easiest one for handicapping totals. That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made by betting the total for the other sports mentioned though.
In this article we cover how to price betting totals, and provide a number of other strategies for using this type of wager effectively.Recommended Reading
If you’re not yet familiar with how this type of wager works, please see our beginner’s guide to totals betting.
Pricing Betting Totals
Again, we’ll point out that it’s much easier to handicap totals betting in hockey than with any other sport. This simple formula should be enough to help you make a rough prediction for how many goals will be scored in a hockey game.
For baseball, all sorts of other factors come into play. The starting pitcher, how batters have performed against pitchers with similar stats, today’s lineup and the bullpen all have to be considered. Technically, when it comes to baseball there’s a lot more useful data to work with, which means making more precise predictions is a strong possibility. However, interpreting all of that data correctly in order to make valid judgments is easier said than done.
A challenge we face for football betting is that there are simply not enough games in the season to get an accurate figure using points scored and points allowed alone. For this, the first adjustment required is to use medians not averages. Looking to this set of numbers: 3, 7, 15, the median is 7 and the average is 8.33.
How do you apply this to betting football totals? When calculating points scored and points allowed, place each into a list in ascending order. The number in the middle is your median, and you can use that number in conjunction with the league average to find your estimated points scored in a game.
Here are the calculations required to do this.
The problem here is that this model is far too simplistic to yield long-term profits. No matter how simple the sport, you’ll need to make other adjustments.
Of course, if handicapping totals were easy then the market would dry up and there would be no profit left. So, if you’re ambitious, the fact that they are hard can be an advantage for you.
Alternative to Pricing Totals
Rather than learning how to price totals, a good strategy for the ambitious beginner is learning predictive modeling.
There’s a good article on this in the book shown here, Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. This book can be purchased on Amazon. It’s the perfect read for those interested in advanced fundamentals.
Now for those who don’t want to wait for the book, we continue with more helpful advice on total betting.
Understanding Key Numbers
When projecting betting totals, it’s important to understand key numbers. For example, in NFL football, the most common total points scored, in order, are as follows.
Knowing this we’d be far more likely to bet over 41 when our model predicted 41.3 than we would be willing to bet under 41 when our model predicted 40.7. While 40 is still a rather common outcome, 39 and 38 are very low probability totals. Over 41 gives us a push on the most common outcome and a win on the second and fourth most common outcomes.
Off Market Prices & Bonuses
With the information just given, there’s a relatively straightforward way to profit from betting NFL totals. The goal is to take advantage of sports betting bonuses and off market prices simultaneously.
What you need to understand is, as mentioned in our article on how to handicap the market, there’s two distinct types of sports betting sites. Sharp books, which are betting sites friendly to professionals, and square books, which are betting sites that target recreational bettors.
It’s also important to understand fan bias. NFL fans typically prefer to bet in favor of something happening rather than against something happening. In other words, betting the over is a lot more fun than betting the under. This leads to recreational betting sites often padding the total an extra 0.5 points, thus making the line worse for bettors wagering on the over.
Recreational sites often have total disregard, or might even be unaware of, the implication of key numbers. Remember the most common total points scored in NFL games we mentioned earlier? If you were to shop a recreational site against a square bookÂ looking for spots, here’s what you’d probably find: the sharp book offering a 47.0 betting total and the recreational site offering a 47.5 betting total. You’d quickly see that the under bet at 47.5 is close to neutral expected value.
When you’re lucky enough to find a near neutral EV bet while also having a bonus, chances are high that you’ll be able to make considerable profits by betting totals.Further Information
Please see our article on sports betting bonuses and rewards for more information on the extra value you can get at online betting sites.
Making Correlated Wagers
One way to gain maximum value when total betting is to consider if there’s a correlation between the total bet you’re making and a game’s point spread. For instance, let’s say you’re betting the under based on the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is playing with less than 100% health, and you believe the Steelers will run the ball and eat the clock.
Now, if the Steelers are -7.5 favorites in the game, then maybe your opinion that the game will go under also means their opponent is more likely to cover the +7.5 point spread. When this is the case, we suggest betting the point spread and the total together in a parlay bet.
Odds or Evens
To state what to many is probably obvious, in certain sports, even and odd number totals make a huge difference. This relates to low scoring sports such as baseball, hockey, and in certain cases soccer. Keep in mind that in baseball and hockey, if a game ends in a tie, it keeps going until the tie is broken. Since ties always represent an even amount of points, it’s clear to see why an odd total outcome is more likely to occur than an even total outcome.
How does this relate to soccer? In some circumstance, like elimination tournaments for example, soccer games aren’t allowed to end in a tie. In such matches, a total betting line of 2.5 has only four ways for the under to win. These are 0-1, 1-0, 0-2, and 2-0.
Notice that the only way for the under bet to win is for a shutout to happen. We’ve actually found occasional arbitrage bets (bets where you can bet multiple sides of a game to guarantee a win) just from taking this into consideration.Please Note
Totals wagers placed on soccer matches where a tie must be broken often only take the first 90 minutes of normal time into account. In that case, there would actually be six possible scorelines for the under to win. 0-0 and 1-1 would also be possibilities.
Avoiding Suckers Bets
We can’t stress enough the importance of avoiding sucker bets. For example, making teaser bets on totals is a long-term losing proposition that is better off avoided. What else do suckers do? They forget to shop around for the best lines.
Remember, as mentioned earlier, recreational betting sites will often shade lines or adjust odds to make things worse for those wagering on the more popular selections. This is to trap “fish” â€“ the bettors that tend to lose frequently because they DO make sucker bets.Top Tip
If you don’t want to be a fish, please check out our article on sucker bets and how to avoid them.
While not as popular as betting against the point spread in sports gambling, betting the “over/under” isn’t that far behind. Sometimes you may see this as O/U, over-under, over under or simply referred to as “the over” or “the under.”
What does over under mean in betting?
Simply stated, it is the total of the points scored by both teams. While all sports employ an over/under betting option, by far the most money wagered on this bet is in football and basketball. Sports like baseball and hockey offer over/under options, but the vast majority of bets on those sports in based on the established “money line” to pick a winner at a set price.
Unlike a point spread bet in which you are aligning yourself with one team, you’re betting on both teams – either their offenses or the defenses – when betting the over/under. Sports books set over/under scores on games based upon numerous factors.
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Over Under Betting LinesIn the NFL, most over/under scores are set in the low-to-mid 40s.In college football, over/under scores are usually in the high-40 to low 50s – in the Big 12, the land that defense forgot, it can hit the 60s.In the NBA, a typical over/under tends to hover in the 210 range. In college basketball, a standard over/under is between 140 and 155.
Betting Tips Under Over Apk
The hidden factors that come into play in determining a point spread vary by sport, but have common themes. Recent team history is a primary factor that sports books like to exploit. Sports by their nature are a reflective business based on developing trends from previous games (“getting on a roll”) and, if a football team has scored 40-plus points in three straight games, the over/under is going to be higher because sports bettors tend to believe that trends are going to continue. It’s human nature…until they don’t.
If a critical player – a quarterback in football or a dominant scorer in basketball – is out or playing injured, the over/under will drop.
Other factors critical in setting the over/under number include weather (where applicable), an undefinable history between teams (you know Steelers-Ravens games are going to be physical bloodbaths) and injuries that may not jump out to casual fans that mean a lot sports books are all factors that go into creating and setting an over/under line that will draw an even number of fans to both sides of the number.
The key to betting the over/under is to look at a slate of games without knowing what the over/under is and set what you believe it should be based on your knowledge of those two teams. The ones that differ the most from what you think should be are the ones to place your bets on.
One final note that has been a mantra of those who bet the over/under with some consistency – every game is under until it goes over.
If you’re new to sports betting, start with picking and choosing games you’re convinced should go under and get an understanding of how late-game fireworks can botch your plans.