Previously, I published a comprehensive article on teaser betting strategy which explains what teasers are, who has the best odds, how to analyze teaser bets on an advanced level, blind teaser bets that are likely profitable, industry secrets and more. If you haven’t read that article, I strongly suggest doing so before continuing.
Now, moving forward, a topic I didn’t discuss in any detail was special teasers. These are the ones referred to at sports betting sites as “sweetheart teasers” and “monster teasers”. The name is not a standard, but the concept is the same. If you’re not familiar with these, a common example is a 10 point three team NFL teaser, generally offered at -110 to -130 pricing.
To give a further example, there are 3 teams you’re interested in betting this week: Jets +1.5, Ravens -11.5, and Patriots -2.5. Rather than betting these straight at -110 or -105, or putting them in a standard parlay, or standard teaser, you can put them in what many sites call a special, monster, or sweetheart teaser. If you do so, you’ll have a single bet of: Jets +11, Ravens -1.5, Patriots +7.5; each spread has been moved 10 points. Once again, you’ll need to risk between $11 and $13 per $10 you want to win, depending if the betting site offers these at -110, -120, -130.
This is only one example of a sweetheart teaser. Some sites also offer four team 13 point teasers, while 5dimes.eu offers teaser betting for 2-15 teams on every half point between 5.5 and 17, as well as a 20 point teaser option. While teaser options vary site to site, the 3 team ten point option is offered by many local bookies and most online betting sites. For that reason, I’ll use that as my example of how to calculate the value of sweetheart teasers.
Ties Often Lose
A teaser bet is a lot like a parlay bet, all of the games you picked must win in order for you to win. As well because you are 'buying' points, the win return is smaller. Use our Teaser Calculator to determine the outcome of any particular teaser combination. Our Teaser Calculator allows you to select up to 12 teams in a teaser. The clock calculator bulb riddle. Pic credit: MindYourLogic Riddles/YouTube. With the COVID-19 quarantine and many people still not able to get back into the real world yet, people are looking for. While teaser options vary site to site, the 3 team ten point option is offered by many local bookies and most online betting sites. For that reason, I’ll use that as my example of how to calculate the value of sweetheart teasers. Ties Often Lose. The first thing you need to know about sweetheart teasers is that, generally, ties lose.
The first thing you need to know about sweetheart teasers is that, generally, ties lose. This is not the case at all sites, but it is at many of them, so pay close attention to the rules.
Best Sites for 10 Point Teasers
Here are the odds and rules for 10 point sweetheart teasers at four of our recommended betting sites:
www.Bovada.lv – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Sportsbook – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Lose)
5Dimes.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Bookmaker.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Reduce)
Sportsbook obviously offers poor odds for this wager type. These guys are good in other areas, but for this type of teaser we’ll leave them out. Bookmaker also offers worse odds, but has its advantages. At Bookmaker these teasers can be bet for as much as $20,000 per bet, while most other sites have $500 max limits. Also Bookmaker has ties reduce, meaning if one or more legs push while all others win, the bet is refunded. However, at -120 this is not enough to make it worth it, so for most, www.Bovada.lv and 5Dimes.eu are the best sites for monster teasers.
Are Sweetheart Teasers Sucker Bets?
For years I heard Sweetheart teasers are sucker bets, but to be honest I hadn’t looked at them in any great detail until writing this article. So with that, let’s go ahead and take a look together:
Now we already know, or at least should know, considering it’s the most common price charged in sports betting, that at -110 you’ll need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even over the long run. When there are three bets which are part of that -110 wager, what we need to do is convert 52.38% into a decimal of .5238 and then find which number times itself three times equals .5238, or in math terms: what is the cube root of .5238. Using a cube root calculator, I quickly determined that .8061 x .8061 x .8061 = .5238. Therefore, for a leg in a three team teaser at -110 to have neutral expected value, it must win 80.61% of the time.
After doing this math, I’m already discouraged. It seems rare that I’m going to pick up an extra 30.61% in win probability by adding 10 points, especially when pushes count as losses. I decided, however, to make an educated guess of which subsets of point spreads have the most value in a 10 point teaser. Now, what I know is that in the NFL the most common margin of victories in order are: 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 4, 1, 17, 13 and 2. So I want to come up with subsets that cross as many of these key numbers as possible. The six that I decided were most likely to have value, if any subset has value at all, are-10.5 to -12.5 favorites, -1.5 to -2.5 favorites, -4.5 to -6.5 favorites, +4.5 to +5.5 underdogs, +7.5 to +9.5 underdogs and +11.5 to +12.5 underdogs.
My next step was looking at tons of historical data to determine how often teams push at each number crossed in a ten point teaser, and then add them together to get a rough idea if teasing that subset with ten points might have value. After doing, this I eliminated the -1.5 to -2.5 and the +7.5 to +9.5 subsets; teasing those ten points only increased their win rates by around 17%. The other four subsets were close enough to warrant a more detailed analysis.
As a professional gambler I’ve been compiling NFL statistics for years into databases I can use for analysis when needed. While this might sounds complex, for calculating teasers, push probabilities, etc., it is really not all that difficult. While I can’t confirm their accuracy, I’ve heard many recommend atsdatabase.com and sportsdatabase.com for NFL data. Heading to my database, I was able to find the following historical results for 10 point teasers:
-10.5 to -12.5 teased 10 points
Since 2006: 53-15 (77.94%)
Since 2001: 97-30 (76.37%)
-4.5 to -6.5 teased 10 points: (32.7% at -6.5) to (31.6% at -4.5)
Since 2006: 210-61 (77.49%)
Since 2001: 391-108 (78.36%)
+4.5 to +5.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 96-24 (80.00%)
Since 2001: 213-58 (78.60%)
+11.5 to +12.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 24-8 (75%)
Since 2001: 41-11 (78.85)
I’ve now dug into these enough to determine with 98 percent certainty, there is no value to be had in standard three team ten point teasers.
Hopefully, this is not too discouraging. A thinking sports bettor, one who often makes the most profit, is someone who has lots of ideas, curiosities, theories and hunches. Rather than betting these and seeing if they win, they get out a blank sheet of paper, a few spread sheets, etc. and run tests. Bookies are smart, so more times than not we’re going to be disappointed in finding out that our brilliant idea was not +EV.
The good news is that as we practice our skills and as our knowledge grows, in time we can spot +EV bets much quicker. As far as teasers go, outside the box +EV teasers exist on a weekly basis.
5Dimes.eu has 560 different types of teasers available. They offer 2-15 team teasers on every half point between 5 and 17, and also 20 point teasers, with two different formats regarding ties for each. While initially doing the work takes some time, and it might be a “tough way to make an easy living”, becoming an expert at football teasers and then managing your bankroll will make you easy money over time.
Now, if you’re a recreational bettor just looking for blind bets, stick to the strategies we mention in our teaser strategy guide. In that same article, those of you aspiring to or currently betting professionally can find further advanced strategies.
Remember teaser betting often wins in streaks; don’t get over confident or carried away with your bankroll. Bet responsibly, and we wish you the best of luck!
Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy
Moneyline bets present the most straightforward way to wager on a sports contest. A moneyline wager simply asks the bettor to choose which team will win a game, with no point spread involved.
The payout odds on the favorite and underdog can differ significantly on a moneyline bet. Using a moneyline calculator breaks down the math on the odds, which allows bettors to assess the true value on each side.
The following page includes the GamingToday.com MoneyLine Calculator, as well as several valuable tables and graphs designed to help bettors gain an edge with moneyline bets.
10 Point Teaser Calculator
Fill in the dollar amount for your bet and the American Odds (for example -110) and calculate the implied probability and the return on the moneyline.:
What Is A Moneyline Bet?
Legal US sportsbooks generally present several different ways to wager on sports. Moneyline bets represent just one of several different wagering options, which include point spread, totals, parlays, and in-game betting.
A moneyline wager allows the bettor to put a bet on which team or athlete will win a contest, straight up. The moneyline underdog will always pay out at better odds than the favorite.
Skilled bettors look for value on moneyline bets by evaluating teams that have a better chance of winning than the implied probability of the odds might dictate.
Moneyline favorites are listed with “-” odds, and the underdog is listed at “+” odds.
For example, here’s a look at a line offered by PointsBet on Game 1 of the 2020 World Series:
|Tampa Bay Rays||+1.5 (-150)||Over 7.5 (+100)||+140|
|LA Dodgers||-1.5 (+130)||Under 7.5 (-121)||-165|
PointsBet sets the Los Angeles Dodgers as the favorite in the game, with -165 moneyline odds. To calculate “-” odds, divide 100 by the odds, then multiply that quotient by the amount you bet.
For example, suppose you want to calculate how much profit a $50 bet on the Dodgers would yield. First divide 100 by 165 (without the “-”), which yields 60.6. Then multiply that number by your $50 bet to arrive at the profit (60.6*$50=$30.30).
A $50 bet on the Dodgers at -165 odds would yield $30.30 in profit. The $50 wager would return $80.30 to the bettor ($30.30 profit plus the original $50 bet).
To calculate “+” odds, divide the odds by 100 and multiply that product by the amount of the wager.
A $50 bet on the Tampa Bay Rays, for instance, would calculate as 140/100 (which yields 1.4), multiplied by $50 (1.4*$50=$70). A winning $50 moneyline bet on the Rays returns $120 total to the bettor ($70 profit plus the original $50 bet.)
Decimal odds can be used to make a simple calculation of odds multiplied by wager amount to arrive at the total amount returned to the bettor.
The -165 odds on Los Angeles, for example, convert to 1.6061 decimal odds using the Gaming Today moneyline calculator. Multiplying that by a $50 bet yields $80.30, and subtracting the original bet amount yields the profit earned ($80.30-$50=$30.30).
What Is A Moneyline Calculator?
The Gaming Today Moneyline Calculator allows for quick calculations for any wager amount and payout odds. Using American, decimal, fractional, Hong Kong, Indonesian, or Malay Odds, you can input the odds and the amount of a wager and see the payout that would come if the bet is a win.
While it’s valuable to understand and be able to calculate favorite and underdog Moneyline odds for all of the different odds notations, the moneyline calculator can save a significant amount of time and energy.
One of the most important features of the Gaming Today Moneyline Calculator is the Implied Probability feature.
For any favorite or underdog input, the calculator produces the implied probability of that team winning. Astute bettors can use the calculator to find teams that have a higher actual win probability than the implied probability dictated by the odds.
The “To Win” window displays the amount of profit yielded by any combination of odds and wager amount. To calculate the return to the bettor, add the “To Win” number to the original amount of the wager.
How To Use The Moneyline Calculator To Place A Sports Bet
Suppose you wanted to put the Gaming Today Moneyline Calculator to work to decide how you wanted to bet on Game 1 of the 2020 World Series. Here’s another look at the lines offered on that game by PointsBet:
|Tampa Bay Rays||+1.5 (-150)||Over 7.5 (+100)||+140|
|LA Dodgers||-1.5 (+130)||Under 7.5 (-121)||-165|
To calculate a $50 moneyline wager on the Tampa Bay Rays, input $50 in the “Bet Amount” window and put “+140” in the “American Odds” window. Hit enter or click on the “Convert Odds” button and see how the moneyline calculator converts that information into several different useful categories.
The calculator converts the “+140” odds into all of the different notations you might see used by a sportsbook.
The +140 American odds convert to 2.40 decimal odds, 7/5 fractional odds, 1.40 for Indonesian/Hong Kong odds, and -0.7143 Malay Odds. A tool like our moneyline calculator can be a crucial component of a betting strategy when evaluating odds at sportsbooks that use different notations.
The “Implied Probability” output tells you that at +140 odds, the Rays have a 41.67% implied probability of winning. A skilled bettor will take that bet if they think Tampa Bay’s actual chance of winning the game is higher than that.
The “To Win” output yields the profit produced if the Rays win. A $50 winning bet on the Rays yields $70 in profit and a $120 total return to the bettor ($70 profit plus the $50 original bet).
Looking for other calculators to use when sports betting? Check out:
Calculating Positive And Negative Moneyline Odds
The math used in calculating the payout on a moneyline is pretty simple. It is one of the most important first steps to understanding sports betting and is crucial to success. Below is a graph of profit won on $100 bets for negative odds. Note that it is a curve that approaches, but will never get to $0. Even -1,000,000 odds still yields some profit from a win:
And here is a graph of profit for positive numbers. The really important difference is that the line is linear. as the odds increase, so does the profit. That goes on forever.
Looking at the odds offered by the sportsbook, note whether they are negative odds (for example -110) or positive odds (for example +120). The calculation changes based on if it is a positive or negative odd. Below we work through an example of a bet of $100 at -110 moneyline odds. It is important to notice that multiplying by -1 is required to give us the positive payout:
PAYOUT = BET AMOUNT / (-1 *MONEYLINE ODDS / 100)
So that looks like:
$90.91 = $100 / (-1 * -110/100)Indigo sky casino bingo schedule.
That also means that you will be returned that amount AND your original bet, meaning you now have $190.91. Let’s work another negative example of a $100 bet at -150:
$100 / (-1 * -150 / 100) = $66.67
Now let’s work through a positive money example. Let’s say you bet $100 at +120
PAYOUT = BET AMOUNT * ODDS / 100
That looks like:
$120 = $100 * 120 / 100
Nfl Teaser Calculator
In that case, you are returned your original bet plus profit, so you now have $220.
What Is Line Movement?
Sportsbooks make money by setting lines that bring in an appropriate amount of wagers on both sides of a bet. The house offers odds that factor in a cut of overall wagers, known as vig, that goes to the sportsbook.
In the World Series Game 1 example from above, if 90% of bets come in on the Dodgers, the sportsbook stands to lose big money if Los Angeles wins. A Tampa Bay win in that situation is even more disastrous for the sportsbook.
If the bets coming in on a game are too one-sided, the line on the game will start to move to try to prompt more bets for the other side. It’s important to remember that sports betting isn’t a zero-sum game, and you’ll be losing in the long run even if you win 50% of the time.
Legal Online Sports Betting In The US
A federal mandate known as the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was overturned in May 2018, giving US states the legal clearance to offer state-regulated sports betting. Several states now offer both retail and online sports betting, including New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Colorado, and several others.
The top online sport betting brands in the US include the following:
One of the biggest brands to emerge in the booming online sports betting industry, DraftKings Sportsbook offers mobile sports wagering in eight states. The sportsbook offers every imaginable kind of wager across multiple sports.
That betting menu includes daily moneyline opportunities on all major US sports leagues, as well as numerous international leagues. A tool like the Moneyline Calculator can be an indispensable tool to use for evaluating the odds and implied win probabilities at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Another huge player in the legal sports betting market, FanDuel Sportsbook offers mobile sports wagering in seven states. Along with DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbooks stands as one of the top two mobile sports betting brands in the US.
FanDuel Sportsbook’s vast selection of moneyline wagering options becomes a potentially profitable market for bettors using a moneyline calculator. Such a tool allows sharp players to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks and only place the most favorable bets.
A collaboration between FOX Sports and The Stars Group, the FOX Bet brand operates online sportsbooks in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Colorado.
The moneyline odds at FOX Bet can vary greatly versus some of its competitors, and bettors using a moneyline calculator tool gain a significant edge versus players that don’t.
Moneyline Calculator FAQs
Yes. More than a dozen states either currently offer online sports betting or have a launch of mobile sports betting products pending.
New Jersey, Nevada, and Pennsylvania represent the three biggest online sports betting markets in the US. Other states with legal online sports wagering include Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, and a few others.
The Gaming Today Moneyline Calculator can be used as a valuable resource on any moneyline bet. It’s especially useful for evaluating the implied probability of winning and payout odds.
The moneyline bet calculator’s ability to display odds across multiple notation formats (American, Decimal, Fractional, Indonesian/Hong Kong, and Malay odds) allows bettors to compare lines across sportsbooks that use different notations.
Even if you’re a veteran sports bettor, running every bet you’re considering through the calculator provides significant benefit.
Yes. Nothing in the terms and conditions of any US legal online sportsbooks prohibits the use of a moneyline calculator.
The calculator provides computations that any person could produce with pen and paper but in a much faster and more efficient manner.
For “+” American odds, divide the odds by 100 and convert that quotient into a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for example, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to the lowest whole number denominator. American odds of +160 would convert to 8/5 fractional odds.
For “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to the simplest form fraction. For -160 odds, for example, the calculation looks like 100/160, which reduces to 5/8 fractional odds.
To convert “+” American odds to implied winning probability, the formula looks like this:
100 / (“+” American odds + 100)*100 = implied probability
For example, +160 odds would be calculated as 100/(160+100)*100. This converts to 100/260*100, which ends up yielding a 38.46% implied probability.
Sports Teaser Calculator
To convert “-” odds, the formula looks like this:
“-” odds / (“-” odds + 100)*100 = implied probability
For instance, -160 odds would translate to 160/(160+100)*100, converting to 160/260*100, which yields a product of 61.54. The implied probability of -160 odds is a 61.54% chance of winning.
Several online sportsbooks offer comprehensive coverage of sports and ways to bet. Some of the best choices for online sports betting in the US include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, FOX Bet, and BetMGM.